Wealth Trajectory
Where will your net worth be in 20 years?
The house
$
$
%
Investments & growth assumptions
$
$
%
%
yr
Compare against
Net wealth at year 20
$2,478,807keeping the house
Combines home equity (after appreciation and mortgage paydown) and investment portfolio (with monthly contributions and market growth).
Net wealth (year 20) — Keep house
$2,478,807
home equity + investments
Net wealth — Sell & rent
$109,911
$-2,368,896 vs keep
Net wealth — Move up
$1,729,809
$-748,998 vs keep
Home equity (20yr)
$1,314,674
appreciation @ 4%/yr
Trajectory over time
Keep house
What this models:
- Mortgage amortization (interest + principal paydown each month)
- Home appreciation at your stated rate
- Investment portfolio growth + monthly contribution
- Sale proceeds (after 7% selling costs) go to investments in sell scenarios
- Move-up assumes proceeds become down payment on a bigger home (3% closing on new)
What this doesn’t model:
- Capital gains tax at sale. §121 exclusion ($250k single / $500k MFJ) covers most primary-home sales, but appreciated long-held homes or move-up sales can blow past it. Use the cap-gains calc. Also: cap-gains on the investment portfolio at exit isn’t modeled.
- Mortgage interest deduction. If you itemize, the keep / move-up scenarios get a tax benefit not credited here. Use the MID calc.
- Property taxes & insurance. Assumed similar across scenarios. In move-up, property tax can spike on reassessment (CA Prop 13 reset, FL Save Our Homes loss, etc.) — can be a multi-thousand-dollar annual hit not reflected here.
- Maintenance / capex on the house (typically 1-2% of value/yr) — materially understates the cost of homeownership in keep / move-up scenarios.
- Sequence-of-returns risk on investments — the model uses smooth compounding; real markets are lumpy.
- Rent growth assumption is 3%/yr; reality varies wildly by market and was 5-8%/yr in many metros 2021-2024.
- Closing-cost frictions on the move-up. 3% closing on the new home is modeled, but agent commission on the sale is bundled into the 7% selling cost, not credited separately.