Will this Airbnb actually cash flow?

Annual cash flow

$-925

That’s $-77/month after all expenses and the mortgage. With $118,500 of cash invested (down + closing + furnishing), your cash-on-cash return is -0.8%. STR revenue ($5,239/mo) appears to be $2,539/mo above an estimated long-term rent — that premium is what you’re trading for the operational complexity.

The hidden risks of STR

Regulation risk is the #1 issue. Cities and HOAs have been steadily banning or restricting STRs (NYC, LA, Barcelona, Lisbon, dozens of US suburbs). Always check local STR ordinances before buying. A ban can wipe out your business overnight while you still owe the mortgage.

Furnishing budget: a turnkey STR needs $15-40k in furniture, kitchenware, linens, decor, and electronics. Premium "Instagrammable" finishes drive higher nightly rates and are often necessary in saturated markets.

Time cost is real: guest communication, calendar management, cleaner coordination, restock runs, maintenance. Self-managing 1 unit is 5-10 hrs/week. Multiply for more units. That’s a real labor cost.

Seasonality: a beach property might book 90% Jun-Aug and 30% Nov-Feb. Make sure your annual occupancy assumption averages to a number you can actually sustain across seasons.

Doesn’t model: occupancy taxes (varies wildly by city, often 10-15% of room rate), permitting/licensing fees, security deposits/damage claims, the 14-day rule for personal-use vacation home tax classification, depreciation, depreciation recapture on sale.